Paulie's Picks - Examples 2

Let's take a look at a racing card, in this case before the races have been run, to better see how to analyze a day of racing.  This is the January 22nd, 2005 race card for Santa Anita.  The analysis is being done the morning of January 22nd. The information on race conditions is from the Santa Anita website.

SA 1 - 6 1/2f Dirt Maiden Claiming

The first race at Santa Anita is $40,000 Maiden Claiming race for 3 year old California bred maidens.  This is a mid-level maiden claiming race. As a general rule, 3 year old maiden claimers are young horses deemed to have limited potential.  Their trainers have determined that these are not classy enough to run in the many maiden special weight races that attract horses on their way to stakes races.  At the better tracks, these races attract horses for whom their were higher expectations, as well as less well bred horses from less well known connections running for the better purses than comparable races at lower level tracks, such as Turf Paradise and Golden Gate.  All of that translates into a big red caution flag.  Horses with stellar form may have hidden problems, while strange shippers may have hidden form.  Don't bet your whole bank roll on this race.

That said, Lord Macho is a solid top choice.  He has a solid advantage in overall characteristics. He has shown dominant early pace in earlier races. His speed figures are essentially equal to Klamathfallsasleep, who has comparable speed but less early foot.  5-2 would be a solid overlay on Lord Macho in this situation, but I doubt he'll be more than 7-5.  The 2.30 relative advantage is reasonable in a maiden race, where the spread in form often pushes the relative advantage numbers over 2.0. I hold no expectation that any of these horses will run to form, so if one of the long shots comes in, so be it.  If you bet exotics, Virgo Genius is in the kind of position that could make him a key for big payouts.  While he appears the slowest, he's listed as the best of the rest, and has enough non-speed metrics going for him to come to top of others.  It may seem counter-intuitive, but maiden claiming races are sometimes best played as though they are run in a parallel universe where up is down and slow is fast.

Results: Klamathfallsasleep ($5.80) - Lord Macho - Del Mar Storm

SA 2 - 1m Turf Claiming

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
2	3-1	ULTERIOR MOTIVES	1.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
6	4-1	DOMINGO JUAN	1.26	-1.00	-4.50	-2.50	-0.50
7	5-1	FRENCH POLO	1.22	-1.08	-3.92	-2.33	-0.75
3	6-1	RIGHT PROOF	1.02	-6.75	-7.25	-6.38	-5.50
5	8-1	BONAGUIL	0.82	-3.35	-10.25	-7.70	-5.15
1	10-1	STRATUS	0.82	-4.25	-9.50	-7.38	-5.25
8	7-2	STRATUS	0.71	-4.25	-9.50	-7.38	-5.25
4	12-1	CALSTER	0.48	-6.25	-15.50	-11.38	-7.25

Race 2 is a mid-level $40,000 claiming race for older horses.  The morning line indicates that this is race without a strong favorite.  Paulie's Picks has the ordering roughly the same as the track handicapper, which you can interpret to mean that the race structure is relatively sound.  $40,000 claiming races are bread-and-butter contests where you should expect consistent performance and a minimum of odd form changes.

Ulterior Motives is showing a clear but not un-natural advantage.  His relative advantage of 1.66 separates him from the rest of the field.  Combine this with a solid few lengths on the field in terms of early pace and overall pace, and he looks like a good bet to win. In terms of speed, this group is closely bunched, which probably explains the relative bunching of odds.  Domingo Juan and French Polo are about equal in all respects and would be betting in exactas.  An exacta box on the top 3, at $12, should pay at least $30, possibly more, and at a low end of 3-2 would seem a reasonable play.

Results: Right Proof ($19.60) - Domingo Juan - Stratus (8)

SA 3 - 6 1/2f Dirt Maiden Special Weight

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
6	5-1	BROMOS LEAD CHANGE	1.29					First Start
5	12-1	QUIET SHINE	1.12					First Start
3	9-5	TWO TIMES WON	1.11	0.00	-2.67	0.00	0.00
7	8-1	ELEGANZA	1.00					First Start
4	2-1	R FAST LADY	0.90	-3.17	0.00	-1.03	-3.67
2	4-1	HEAVENLY DOWRY	0.85					First Start
1	30-1	UNBRIDLED ANEES	0.72					First Start

The 3rd at Santa Anita is another 6 1/2 furlong maiden race for 3 year olds, but unlike the 1st race, these are well-meant horses expected to perform well and rise to heights.  Their are two horses with records, both pretty close, and 5 first time starters.  There's no great spread, but first time starters don't generally push the numbers to great extremes.

Bromos Lead Change is the first pick, and at 5-1, that could be a good bet.  Quiet Shine isn't far behind in overall, and 12-1 is very attractive.  However, the two horses with experience are the morning line favorites and may be well meant.  Horses with at least one start have a basic advantage in that they've run a race, and are less apt to make a rookie error like standing in the gate, or running greenly, or running like a banshee the first half and stopping. This conflict between morning line and Paulie's Picks, first time starters and horse with experience would lead me to bet less, and to demand a price.  I might consider betting an exacta with the top 3, with the hope that the top previous runner either doesn't come in, or that one of the two of the top firsters comes in underneath. 

Results: Two Times Won ($4.80) - Eleganza - R Fast Lady

SA 4 - 6f Dirt Maiden Claiming

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
14	5-2	CUP OF COCO	2.93	-2.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
11	6-1	SILBER	1.95	0.00	-13.17	-4.81	-0.63
12	8-1	KISS'N DYNA	1.57	-6.33	-17.83	-8.58	-3.96
10	5-1	CLASSY OLE	1.19	-10.33	-6.17	-6.92	-7.29
2	30-1	BASKA JUANITA	0.83	-11.93	-14.85	-9.82	-7.36
13	20-1	DOUBLE'S PRIDE	0.75	-11.93	-14.85	-9.82	-7.36
7	12-1	SUSPICIOUS TOWN	0.73	-6.67	-15.33	-7.97	-4.29
8	15-1	C'EST LULU	0.72	-9.67	-15.50	-10.03	-7.29
9	30-1	SHEDABOSS	0.69	-11.93	-14.85	-9.82	-7.36
3	12-1	TINTINABULATION	0.65					First Start
1	20-1	LUVOLE'	0.62	-20.83	-17.50	-15.08	-14.46
4	30-1	HOUSTONWEHAVARUNER	0.61	-13.00	-16.00	-10.08	-7.13
5	6-1	SIBERSCHOOL	0.50	-17.50	-20.50	-13.58	-10.13
6	30-1	I'M A TIGRESS	0.26	-33.00	-26.50	-21.14	-18.46

The 4th at Santa Anita is a 6 furlong maiden claiming race for older fillies and mares.  The base claiming price is $25,000.  These are cheap horses for Santa Anita, and apparently none-to-uncommon given the full field.  As in the first race, Cup of Coco is a clear first choice with overwhelming early pace.  She looks like a solid top choice in this crowd, with the only real speed competition coming from Silber.  Kiss'n Dyna and Classy Ole are both rated as potential over-achievers, too.  

Two of my favorite wagers is the poor-mans exacta and trifecta part-box.  This would be the top 2 with the top 3 exacta (4 bets instead of 6 with a box), and the top 2 with top 3 with top 4 trifecta (8 bets instead of 24 with a four horse box).  I would likely consider one of those vehicles for this race.  The field is large and cheap, so any of the longer shots could jump up.  However, the stair-step relative advantage ratings coupled with the attractive morning line odds (should they hold up) make this a race that would be a good candidate for that wager.

Results: Cup Of Coco ($5.00) - Kiss'n Dyna (Ex. $24.60) - Silber (Tri. $75.40)

SA 5 - 6 1/2f Turf Allowance

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
5	9-2	HORTENSE	1.83	0.00	-5.50	-0.06	0.00
9	7-2	DIXIE DOS	1.38	-4.25	0.00	0.00	-2.25
4	5-1	CHAMP'S ROCKET	1.37	-2.75	-8.17	-1.94	-1.08
3	8-1	OUR FLING	0.82	-2.45	-6.00	-2.05	-2.15
8	12-1	VOLENTE DEO	0.82	-4.50	-18.00	-8.75	-4.75
1	5-2	POLYFIRST	0.80	-6.48	-8.84	-4.47	-4.47
2	8-1	DESERT TENT	0.67	-10.42	-7.17	-4.72	-5.75
7	12-1	ALEXANDER CHARLOTE	0.66	-11.75	-12.90	-8.88	-10.05
6	20-1	ALMOST DANCING	0.66	-15.75	-13.00	-9.33	-9.75

Race 5 is a 6 1/2 furlong turf allowance for older fillies and mares who have not a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.  

Hortense is another solid first choice.  She has top speed and the top late pace.  She has a clear but not startling separation in relative advantage.  Her 9-2 morning line indicates that the track handicapper sees her as a legitimate contender.  The weak favorite, Polyfirst, is down the list.  Checking the program she's a French bred, likely an import, under the care of top trainer Richard Mandella.  This is a concern.  I would like to know a little more about this horse before solidly betting against her.  Other than that, I see this as an excellent chance to make a stand for Hortense.  I would also strongly consider the top-3 exacta or trifecta.  Dixie Dos has the best early pace and competitive late pace, and could control the race and come off the hill with plenty left.  Champ's Rocket is a little less compelling, but the speed numbers in there and this horse is likely to be a price.  Good to have in the mix.  If it weren't for Polyfirst I'd play this aggressively.  Knowing nothing else about this horse, I'd back off on the intensity of the wagering but still likely bet this race if the odds are close to the morning line.

Results: Polyfirst ($8.60) - Hortense - Volente Deo

SA 6 - 1 1/8m Dirt Claiming

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
1	9-2	DIG FOR IT	1.39	-0.42	0.00	-0.06	-3.04
5	6-1	GOLD BIDDER	1.31	0.00	-16.83	-8.58	-3.25
4	6-1	GONE CATTIN	1.17	-0.75	-3.33	0.00	0.00
2	6-1	TALIANO	1.09	-0.75	-13.62	-6.30	-2.38
7	8-1	HELENICO	1.00	-9.50	-2.08	-5.33	-11.50
6	6-1	BLUSHING CIEL	0.95	-4.42	-5.33	-5.15	-7.88
9	7-2	BOURBON PARTY	0.92	-2.35	-1.73	-1.90	-4.97
3	15-1	CONTINENTAL BOOGIE	0.89	-7.25	-12.33	-8.44	-7.25
8	20-1	PRESENTER	0.65	-8.89	-23.05	-14.47	-8.80
10	15-1	BIN DERE DID DAT	0.64	-2.75	-4.48	-2.40	-3.23

The 6th race is a 1 1/8 mile dirt claiming affair for older horses.  The $10,000 claiming price does not auger well.  These are the bottom of the barrel for Santa Anita, and not what you'd like to see middle card on Saturday :-(.  The track handicapper hasn't separated these very much, and understandably.  Paulie's top 4 selections are effectively the same speed.  The slowest horse is no more than 5 lengths off the top bunch.  There's every reason to believe this could be a group finish.

If this race were going through our wagering program it would most likely be scored a "don't bet".  But, if you are playing at home, one approach to this race is to look for a big variance in the odds in one of the top 4 horses and bet it.  Another approach would be to put out a big trifecta box on the top 4 and hope it hits with the long shots, knowing that there's every reason to think that any of the top 7 could be there.  However, if the top 4 bring it home, you'll be looking at a $300 ticket, if not much more, an effective return of 5-1.

Results: Blushing Ciel ($20.60) - Bourbon Party - Gold Bidder

SA 7 - 1 1/4m Turf Grade II Stake

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
5	5-2	PUPPETEER	1.57	-0.33	-4.75	-2.69	-0.63
8	4-1	EPICENTRE	1.20	0.00	-6.75	-4.31	-1.88
1	10-1	WHILLY	1.20	-0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	8-1	PUERTO BANUS	1.06	-7.17	-6.08	-8.35	-10.63
6	9-5	LICENSE TO RUN	1.04	-0.83	-7.75	-5.94	-4.13
3	8-1	HABANEROS	0.83	-4.17	-5.08	-5.85	-6.63
7	15-1	T. H. APPROVAL	0.64	-5.08	-13.75	-9.75	-5.75
2	20-1	GORYLLA	0.47	-7.83	-14.08	-12.10	-10.13

Race 7 is the $150,000 Grade II San Marcos Stakes for 4 year olds and over at 1 1/4 miles.  

The proposition in this race is simple: beat License To Run.  The morning-line favorite is the 5th selection.  Paulie's first choice, Puppeteer is a solid top choice, with competitive speed and pace figures to support the relative advantage.  He is one of 3 other horses besides License To Run with almost identical speed figures.  The other two, Epicentre and Whilly are rated just about equal 2nd and 3rd choices.  

Whilly doesn't have an overwhelming early pace advantage, but as a rule of thumb, a strong early pace horse is especially dangerous on longer turf routes (counter-intuitively) as they often get to race at the same speed as the rest of the field following the initial burst of speed to the front, and have the advantage of carrying those lengths with them as they do the real running, when the distance has taken its toll on everyone and relative acceleration is difficult.  In this case, Whilly is not dominant (10 or more points) over the field, but he has also shown late pace and competitive speed, so the advantage is still strong, and at 10-1 as a 3rd choice, I'd want him in my wagers.  

Results: Whilly ($8.80) - Puppeteer (Ex. $25.60) - T. H. Approval.  Scratched: Epicentre, Puerto Banus

SA 8 - 6f Dirt Allowance

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
5	7-5	ATA OLYMPIO	1.66	0.00	-4.67	0.00	0.00
2	6-1	THIS N THAT	1.35	-1.00	-9.00	-1.44	-0.67
1	8-1	SAPORE DI MARE	1.22	-17.67	0.00	-4.86	-14.00
8	3-1	CLEARTALKER	1.20	-3.67	-5.83	-1.67	-1.92
3	7-2	YOU CRACK ME UP	0.95	-9.17	-12.58	-6.58	-5.92
7	15-1	FAIRLY RUN	0.56	-16.00	-21.00	-12.22	-10.17
4	30-1	WRENCH IT	0.54	-17.79	-16.21	-11.95	-11.79
6	30-1	TRICKY FLASH FLOOD	0.52	-21.67	-19.83	-15.81	-18.29

The 8th race is a 6 furlong dirt allowance for older horses who have not one a race other than maiden or claiming.  These are bread and butter races for Paulie's Picks, and this is a straight-forward profile.

Ata Olympio is the top choice, the morning line favorite, the top speed and average and late pace selection.  I'd probably single him in parlay wagers, and bet him on top with the second and third choices, This N That and Sapore Di Mare in exactas or trifectas, if these odds prevail.  The Southern California bettors bet down horses like this to 4-5, and at those odds I might take a miss on the win bet.  I still might make a cold trifecta, though, 5-2-1, on the theory that Sapore Di Mare sets the pace, falters in the stretch, is passed by Ata Olympio to win, and This N That to place, but hold third.  While Sapore Di Mare looks to set the early pace, the low speed and sustained pace figures scream "quitter", but that doesn't mean he couldn't hold to finish 3rd.

Results: Ata Olympio ($3.40) - You Crack Me Up - Cleartalker

SA 9 - 1m Turf Maiden Special Weight

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
8	2-1	ULISTNINTOME	2.01	0.00	-10.83	0.00	0.00
7	8-1	GROUND CONTROL	1.28	-14.67	0.00	-0.56	-7.50
6	4-1	TWICE UNBRIDLED	1.17	-4.75	-10.33	-1.33	-2.88
10	15-1	DEL MAR SILVER	1.04	-21.00	-5.33	-2.67	-8.00
9	8-1	WELCOME AGAIN	0.91	-13.50	-27.83	-13.75	-10.50
3	8-1	LION CAT	0.86	-12.67	-12.33	-3.67	-5.50
2	6-1	ROBADOR	0.86	-11.00	-8.00	-1.03	-4.67
1	12-1	RICARDO VOADOR	0.72	-13.00	-22.33	-11.25	-11.00
4	15-1	KING DYNAMITE	0.69	-21.00	-4.33	-2.67	-8.50
5	20-1	BLACKWELL'S WAY	0.47	-7.67	-13.33	-2.75	-4.17

The finale is 1 mile turf race for 3 year old maidens.  These are not for sale.  

Ulistnintome is a clear standout.  He dominates in relative advantage, late pace, and speed.  He's trained by top trainer Richard Mandella.  There's every reason to think he's well-meant, will run to form, and will crush this field.  There's every reason to believe he'll never be more than even money, too, and you know what, even money on him could still be an overlay.  Ground Control looks like an early speed fader, but without significant competition for pace could carry speed farther today and stay in the mix. Even the slower horses in this field are well-bred and well-meant, from top outfits, but that said, I would likely bet this as written, with Ulistnintome on top and the top 3 selections underneath to fill in exotics. 

Results - Ulistnintome ($3.80) - Ground Control (Ex. $34.60) - Robador

I hope this helps you understand and interpret the race cards and Paulie's Picks.