Paulie's Picks - Examples 1
Let's take a look at a racing card, in this case before the races have been run, to
better see how to analyze a day of racing. This is the November 24th, 2004 race
card. The analysis is being done the evening of November 23rd, in part in preparation
for a $130k Pick-6 carryover. The information on race conditions is from the NYRA
web site.
AQU 1
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
3
|
12-1 |
NO WHITE FLAGS
|
1.51 |
-5.00 |
-15.50 |
-11.31 |
-7.13 |
|
|
5
|
5-2 |
RIVER SPIRIT
|
1.24 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
1
|
5-1 |
ALTER EGO
|
1.02 |
-8.00 |
-7.00 |
-6.25 |
-5.38 |
|
|
2
|
4-1 |
DOUBLE SLAM
|
1.00 |
-7.50 |
-9.42 |
-7.42 |
-5.42 |
|
|
4
|
3-1 |
TRICKY TRAVIS
|
0.94 |
-4.90 |
-2.75 |
-3.05 |
-3.35 |
|
|
7
|
5-1 |
ACRES
|
0.84 |
-9.50 |
-11.00 |
-9.88 |
-8.75 |
|
|
6
|
20-1 |
BO BO'S VICE
|
0.79 |
-6.90 |
-24.55 |
-15.95 |
-7.35 |
|
|
8
|
10-1 |
BARYSHNIKOV'S SONG |
0.66 |
-6.17 |
-14.42 |
-9.75 |
-5.08 |
The first race at Aqueduct is a $12,500 claiming race, pretty cheap by NYRA standards.
It's to be run at 1 3/16 miles, an odd distance. No White Flags is
the top selection based on all factors. River Spirit separates
himself from the field rather well on the basis of pace and speed. No
White Flags is the third in speed, but appears likely to run midpack based
on early pace. Tricky Travis is the only other relative front
runner, and is also competitive on speed. He is at the bottom of a bunch of
the middling candidates based on all factors. All things being equal, I would
take River Spirit as the most likely winner. I'd prefer No
White Flags at closer to 6-1 than 12-1. Why? Most often horses that
look to good to be true, are. If the NYRA handicapper, Don LaPlace, has
him at 12-1 in an 8 horse field, there must be some knocks. If the savvy NY
bettors have him down in single digits, though, then I like his chances better.
The money generally knows. All of that said, I would bet River
Spirit more agressively than No White Flags, but might include
them both in an exacta. I would not bet this race heavily.
AQU 2
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
5
|
7-2 |
SUNSHINE JOHANNE
|
1.40 |
-3.73 |
-3.83 |
-2.14 |
-3.23 |
|
|
4
|
3-1 |
PRIVATE BOOT
|
1.32 |
0.00 |
-3.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
6
|
5-1 |
MILITARY LASS
|
1.25 |
-5.80 |
0.00 |
-1.67 |
-5.40 |
|
|
2
|
5-1 |
VALIEO
|
1.10 |
-2.40 |
-4.33 |
-2.72 |
-3.48 |
|
|
1
|
10-1 |
BRACKENBER
|
0.80 |
-12.20 |
-7.80 |
-8.47 |
-11.50 |
|
|
7
|
4-1 |
EXCITABLE
|
0.74 |
-10.40 |
-4.75 |
-4.39 |
-7.03 |
|
|
1A |
10-1 |
LET'S ROLL LADY
|
0.73 |
-10.60 |
-7.80 |
-5.58 |
-6.20 |
|
|
3
|
6-1 |
RUNAWAY ELEANOR
|
0.66 |
-11.80 |
-15.00 |
-12.42 |
-12.20 |
Race 2 is a $35,000 claiming race for 3 year old fillies at a mile on the dirt. This
is a much more interesting betting race than the first race. 8 entrants, 7 betting
interests, is a good size field. The Morning Line suggests this is a wide-open
field with 6 betting interests bunched together. However, Paulie's Picks suggests
that Sunshine Johanne is the best of the lot, and that
the top 4 form a cluster that stands out from the other
four. Sunshine Johanne is not indicated to the be top
horse on speed or any pace segment. However, Sunshine Johanne is
competitive with the four top horse in all speed and pace categories. The top
horses have a nice even step down in Relative Advantage. This is a positive
sign as to the overall quality of the race model, as is the reasonable relationship
between morning line and relative advantage. I would very happily take 7-2 on Sunshine
Johanna, but wouldn't be surprised to see any of the top 4 horses win.
Similarly, a major oversight on any of the top 4 horses odds-wise could key a very
large exotic payoff.
AQU 3
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
4
|
6-5 |
INTENSE DESIRE
|
1.54 |
0.00 |
-2.67 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
1A |
6-1 |
APT
|
1.15 |
|
|
|
|
First Start |
|
5
|
4-1 |
BUSH'S SONG
|
1.12 |
-1.67 |
0.00 |
-0.33 |
-1.83 |
|
|
1
|
6-1 |
WEND
|
0.98 |
|
|
|
|
First Start |
|
6
|
3-1 |
LET'S COAST
|
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
First Start |
|
3
|
6-1 |
TRUE GOLD
|
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
First Start |
|
2
|
20-1 |
FREEDOM RIDGE
|
0.31 |
-19.00 |
-13.67 |
-12.22 |
-12.83 |
|
The 3rd race is a 6 furlong open maiden race for fillies and mares 3 years old and
up. Paulie's Picks does very well at maiden races. I am repeatedly surprised
to see Paulie's Picks select first time starters, recidivist losers, first turfers,
and all manner of horses to win these races, and see them actually win. However,
one thing Paulie's Picks doesn't help with is odds moves on first time starters.
You should always be on the lookout for short odds horses, especially first time starters
for major trainers at better meets.
Could one of these first time starters be a world-beater? Probably not. This
is a little late in the career of a good horse to be taken first to the post.
That said, a little extra knowledge here: the entry are from the Claiborne Farm stable,
for different trainers. Breeders race in part to build pedigree, and a winner is a
winner. They may be persevering with these two because they have good potential even
though they've had missteps along the way.
Paulie's Relative Advantage numbers for maiden races generally range over a much wider
range (0.30 to 3.00 is not uncommon) than do the races for winners, for a number of
technical reasons. So, the 1.54 relative advantage for Intense Desire isn't
a huge blowout advantage, and if the 6-5 odds hold up, Intense Desire isn't
a huge overlay. Bush's Song has close numbers on speed and
pace, and is relatively competitive on overall score. The entry is also competitive,
and the fact you are getting 2 for the price of 1, from two top trainers for a top
stable, holds some interest . At 2-1, Intense Desire would
be an overlay.
AQU 4
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
2
|
7-2 |
MELODEEMAN
|
1.59 |
0.00 |
-7.67 |
-0.94 |
0.00 |
|
|
3
|
3-1 |
TAKE ME OUT JOHN
|
1.51 |
-2.92 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-2.42 |
|
|
7
|
5-2 |
KARAKORUM PATRIOT
|
1.50 |
-7.42 |
-5.00 |
-3.11 |
-4.58 |
|
|
4
|
4-1 |
SCOOTY
|
0.96 |
-7.50 |
-12.42 |
-7.97 |
-8.25 |
|
|
6
|
20-1 |
SAFARI
|
0.85 |
-9.25 |
-4.67 |
-3.58 |
-5.45 |
|
|
1
|
6-1 |
CONNECTIVITY
|
0.37 |
-10.58 |
-19.67 |
-11.56 |
-9.75 |
|
|
5
|
10-1 |
BILLY WRIGHT
|
0.23 |
-14.50 |
-23.42 |
-15.11 |
-12.88 |
The 4th at Aqueduct is a "non-winners of 1 other than" allowance race for New York
Bred horses. This is a typical NY race populated generally with winners of a
single (maiden) race. This is at 6 furlongs.
You could do worse than to call out a 3 horse exacta box on the 2-3-7, though it wouldn't
pay more than $36 or 2-1. Take Me Out John jas a solid pace
edge in early pace and competitive speed figures. Melodeeman looks
like a likely mid-pack runner who can close to win. Karakorum Patriot does
not appear to be a threat on speed and pace, however he has strong overall numbers
and is the Morning Line favorite and must be considered.
AQU 5
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
14 |
3-1 |
REGION OF MERIT
|
1.90 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
13 |
4-1 |
WHITE BUCK
|
1.41 |
-7.25 |
-5.00 |
-6.44 |
-6.88 |
|
|
2B |
6-1 |
MUTAMAYYAZ
|
1.32 |
-10.50 |
-8.30 |
-9.36 |
-9.43 |
|
|
9
|
4-1 |
LORD LANGFUHR
|
1.29 |
-3.00 |
-11.67 |
-8.06 |
-3.46 |
|
|
1
|
8-5 |
DEVINE WIND
|
1.25 |
-6.25 |
-21.00 |
-14.50 |
-7.00 |
|
|
3
|
8-1 |
ATFIRST BLUSH
|
1.23 |
-6.00 |
-6.00 |
-5.46 |
-4.75 |
|
|
8
|
6-1 |
VANITY AFFAIR
|
1.22 |
-9.00 |
-27.17 |
-20.90 |
-13.63 |
|
|
2
|
6-1 |
WIND IN YOUR FACE
|
1.22 |
-11.17 |
-9.50 |
-9.31 |
-8.13 |
|
|
1A |
8-5 |
NATIONALISTIC
|
1.08 |
-9.70 |
-19.90 |
-15.81 |
-10.73 |
|
|
6
|
10-1 |
OVERPASS
|
0.81 |
-9.50 |
-1.83 |
-5.84 |
-7.38 |
|
|
4
|
20-1 |
HRISTOFOROS
|
0.76 |
-13.30 |
-16.90 |
-16.06 |
-14.23 |
|
|
7
|
10-1 |
CRAZY SONG
|
0.60 |
-13.17 |
-29.17 |
-20.98 |
-11.79 |
|
|
11 |
8-1 |
GASPERILLO DAZE
|
0.55 |
-9.75 |
-18.50 |
-14.19 |
-8.88 |
|
|
12 |
20-1 |
SILVER CLIPPER
|
0.54 |
-17.50 |
-14.50 |
-15.46 |
-15.03 |
|
|
5
|
12-1 |
JUDGE'S CASE
|
0.41 |
-9.83 |
-18.17 |
-14.56 |
-9.96 |
|
|
10 |
15-1 |
SOME IRISH LEGEND
|
0.40 |
-14.00 |
-29.00 |
-22.06 |
-14.13 |
|
Race 5 is a 1 1/16 mile turf for horses who have started at a claiming price of $35,000
within 2004. This is an interesting if uncommon condition in New York.
The top 2 picks are entered for the Main Track Only. If the race stays on the
turf, they will not run. Mutamayyaz and 10, 11, and 12 are
on the Also Eligible list.
This race is wide open. Lord Langfuhr has the best speed and
pace after the AE's and MTO horses, and would also be the top pick. The However,
he shows no separation from 4 other horses. Even Overpass,
the first of the 10-1 and over horses, has some interest with a significant early
pace advantage.
As a win bettor, you may wish to cherry pick a top eschelon horse at longer odds who
has been overlooked. For a Pick-6, this is a race you'd likely have to
spread out.
If the race comes off the turf, the two MTO horses are the ones to beat. However,
check back for Paulie's Picks after the changes for a version based on a dirt route.
AQU 6
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
3
|
4-1 |
GODDESS OF LOVE
|
1.48 |
-3.50 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
5
|
4-1 |
MISSILE STRIKE
|
1.07 |
-6.50 |
-11.50 |
-6.38 |
-3.00 |
|
|
4
|
5-2 |
BURANT ORANGE
|
1.06 |
-1.50 |
-14.00 |
-6.46 |
-0.63 |
|
|
6
|
3-1 |
OBVIOUSLY
|
1.06 |
-6.00 |
-9.50 |
-5.97 |
-2.17 |
|
|
1
|
5-1 |
FLAWLESS TREASURE
|
0.83 |
0.00 |
-15.50 |
-7.92 |
-1.00 |
|
|
2
|
6-1 |
ROYAL SANCTION
|
0.50 |
-14.00 |
-23.00 |
-17.46 |
-9.75 |
|
Race 6 is an open Maiden race for 2 year old fillies at 1 1/8 mile. Goddess
of Love, if available at 4-1, would be a solid play. Even 5-2 would
be a good play, in my opinion. She's shown competitive speed and is clearly
the early pace leader.
At those odds I would play this as a straight win wager. She may not win, as
the other horses are well meant, from good stables, but I would be confident
in a wager on her.
AQU 7
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
5
|
2-1 |
CARMINOOCH
|
1.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
3
|
9-2 |
PRECISION PERFECT
|
1.36 |
-6.00 |
-6.92 |
-5.46 |
-5.08 |
|
|
2
|
6-1 |
CHEROKEE CHIEF
|
1.11 |
-10.25 |
-5.92 |
-6.38 |
-6.33 |
|
|
8
|
5-1 |
BIG APPLE DADDY
|
1.04 |
-8.50 |
-6.92 |
-6.25 |
-4.83 |
|
|
7
|
5-1 |
THUNDERPRINCE
|
0.73 |
-7.50 |
-3.67 |
-4.67 |
-5.58 |
|
|
4
|
10-1 |
SORT IT OUT
|
0.72 |
-11.00 |
-20.92 |
-13.81 |
-9.08 |
|
|
1
|
12-1 |
NO ALLEGIANCE
|
0.69 |
-25.50 |
-21.17 |
-17.33 |
-14.33 |
|
|
6
|
8-1 |
EVERYTHINGS GROOVY |
0.60 |
-11.00 |
-22.17 |
-14.63 |
-9.08 |
|
Race 7 is an allowance for non-winners of a race other than, bred in New York, at
a mile on the dirt.
There's a lot to like in this race. Carminooch has the top
numbers in all categories. The low Morning Line doesn't portend well for a good
price, but Carminooch appears lengths better at all stages of the
races. The significant step from 1.75 to 1.36 is positive, and the subsequent
step to 1.11 shows a good tiering of the win potential.
The second tier of horses here are similar, with a small edge to Precision
Perfect on speed and overall ratings. I would consider a cold exacta
5-3, or a win bet on Carminooch.
AQU 8
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
1
|
6-5 |
PICNIC THEME
|
1.60 |
-9.33 |
-6.83 |
-5.90 |
-6.67 |
|
|
1A |
6-5 |
CHILDRESS
|
1.19 |
0.00 |
-5.08 |
-1.69 |
0.00 |
|
|
2
|
4-1 |
TACTICAL PLUS
|
1.10 |
-4.00 |
-3.17 |
-1.57 |
-1.83 |
|
|
3
|
4-1 |
GRAND PRAYER
|
1.07 |
-6.25 |
-0.33 |
-1.13 |
-4.63 |
|
|
6
|
5-2 |
SWEET DYNAMITE
|
0.99 |
-2.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
-1.83 |
|
|
5
|
20-1 |
TREASURE'S DREAM
|
0.55 |
-8.25 |
-16.58 |
-10.94 |
-7.00 |
|
|
4
|
15-1 |
STAKE
|
0.49 |
-23.67 |
-7.83 |
-13.65 |
-21.17 |
|
Race 8 is an open allowance for fillies and mares who have not won three races other
than (and some other conditions) at a mile on the dirt. A race of this type
may attract a number of good horses, and you never know if you'll see some stakes
level also-rans.
The entry of Picnic Theme and Childress appear formidable. Picnic
Theme has a clear break from the field on overall Relative Advantage, though
the speed and pace figures appear wanting. Childress has the
top speed and closing prowess. It would be reasonable to single the 1/1a here.
AQU 9
|
Program Number |
Morning Line |
Horse |
Relative Advantage |
Relative Speed |
Early Pace |
Average Pace |
Sustained Pace |
Note |
|
4
|
5-2 |
SQUAW VALLEY
|
2.22 |
0.00 |
-1.27 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
2
|
3-1 |
SPARKLING BLUE
|
1.64 |
-6.55 |
-1.17 |
-2.52 |
-3.83 |
|
|
10 |
8-1 |
SWINGING GATE
|
1.15 |
-8.60 |
-12.47 |
-7.78 |
-6.60 |
|
|
1
|
4-1 |
CREDIT GAL
|
1.06 |
-5.60 |
-13.07 |
-7.58 |
-4.70 |
|
|
6
|
6-1 |
HEATHER LIGHT
|
0.93 |
-8.20 |
-14.87 |
-9.77 |
-7.70 |
|
|
7
|
20-1 |
NOTMYFAULT
|
0.83 |
-13.80 |
-13.17 |
-9.85 |
-8.83 |
|
|
9
|
20-1 |
HALFWAY TO HEAVEN
|
0.70 |
-12.00 |
-17.47 |
-11.27 |
-8.50 |
|
|
8
|
12-1 |
KATIE KREITZ
|
0.57 |
-17.80 |
-22.54 |
-18.44 |
-17.01 |
|
|
5
|
20-1 |
TWO YEAR WARANTY
|
0.48 |
-22.60 |
-14.47 |
-13.40 |
-13.50 |
|
|
3
|
15-1 |
LETTHEFREEDOMROAR
|
0.41 |
-10.80 |
0.00 |
-4.52 |
-9.87 |
|
The finale is another moderate claiming race, for 3 year old and upward fillies and
mares at 6 1/2 furlongs. Squaw Valley appears dominant.
A 2.22 Relative Advantage is significant in sprint races. Squaw Valley has
powerful speed and overall and late pace, with a clear late pace advantage.
It's very possible that this race will be run with Squaw Valley and Sparkling
Blue battling with Letthefreedomroar. The latter then
falls back on the turn, and Squaw Valley wears out Sparkling
Blue to pull out a win.
One angle to consider in races like this is to put together exotic wagers with the
top horse as you see it, and then the non-win-contenders underneath. The thinking
goes that the second and third choices, if ridden to win against a dominant horse,
end up spent and lose emphatically. This opens the door to the horses who aren't
ridden with the thought they have a big chance to fill out the bottom. In this race,
that might be the 4 with the 7 and 9, or the 6 and 10, too.
I hope this helps you understand and interpret the race cards and Paulie's Picks.
|